SPECPOL Global Issue: Nagorno-Karabakh - the Eternal Conflict

Abstract

Nagorno-Karabakh is a separatist region in the Caucasus mountains; it has long represented a tense geopolitical hotspot and the centre of the strife between Azerbaijan and Armenia, as it lies in Azerbaijan but its population is composed of95% ethnic Armenians. The history of the conflict dates back to the Soviet Union and the turbulent waters that the region has had to navigate during the last forty years are to this day a testament to the impact of the USSR on neighbouring nations and their self-determination efforts. Let’s take a step back and look at what Nagorno-Karabakh represents today and how it affects and shapes Caucasian and European geopolitics.

History

Stuck in a seemingly eternal conflict, Nagorno-Karabakh has transcended and outlived the USSR, but the wounds of the past can still be sensed today. With conflict erupting and uprooting the lives of the more than 150,000 inhabitants of the region, the origins of the dispute dates back to the early 20th century. We will take the history of the issue step by step and analyze how it all started and why it still is a hotbed for ethnic and political divergence.

Soviet and Stalinist reign

During the beginning of the Soviet Union, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (Region) was set up as a part of Azerbaijan in the 1920s, in spite of its overwhelming 95% ethnic Armenian population. It is widely recognized that this is when the conflict first began - however, with the Soviet Union’s ever-tight grip on its satellite countries and specific interest in the Caucasus, the dispute didn’t immediately flare-up. Despite all this, during the 1980s, the USSR’s strengths were significantly weakened and they were forced to give more freedom to the people within the Union (Gorbachev’s perestroika, “economic and political restructure and reform”, and glasnost, “openness”, policies).

In 1988, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO)’s local government body petitioned to join Armenia, even though it was included in Azerbaijan. After 1991, the year the Soviet Union collapsed, Nagorno-Karabakh declared its independence from the Azeri state, with the full support of neighbouring Armenia. This sparked the first armed conflict in the region on the matter of its adherence to Armenia or Azerbaijan.

Post-Soviet Era

War erupted between the two countries over the region, leaving around 30,000 casualties on both sides and several hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing the region. Initially, Armenia gained de facto control over Nagorno-Karabakh, occupying roughly 20% of the neighbouring Azerbaijani territory. The First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994) had started with NKAO’s declaration of independence from Azerbaijan, but didn’t fully escalate until 1992, when border skirmishes and inter-ethnic conflict turned into a full-scale war. The OSCE (Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe)’s efforts failed to reach an agreement between the two sides in the winter of 1992. Armenia gained control over the entire enclave and the Azeri territory surrounding it.

The peace agreement and ceasefire following Armenia’s “conquests” and control over the region were brokered and led in 1994 by the Russian Federation, an actor that had become increasingly interested in the conflict, mainly as a direct consequence of the oil and gas field located in its neighborhood, as well as the gold and semi-precious metals that can be mined in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Although a predominantly ethnicity-related issue, the economic aspects of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should not be disregarded: the oil and gas sector makes up more than 40% of Azerbaijan’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and over 90% of its exports (as of October 2020). The region is rich in natural basement resources such as precious and semi-precious metals, and the booming gold mining business was paving the way to a more economically stable Nagorno-Karabakh. In 2002, the Drmbon deposit was developed and launched, generating significant advancements in NK’s local economy. The turn of the century brought about a new sliver of hope for the region, but peace had not been long-lasting.

Several border incidents and clashes followed the first peace agreement between 1994 and 2020, leaving hundreds of soldiers dead on both sides. Notable and worth mentioning are the 2008 Mardakert clashes (following the 2008 Armenian election protests), as well as the sporadic fighting between the two sides.

In September 2020, the conflict re-escalated, leading to the mobilization of troops and martial law. The 44 days of fighting ended on November 10, when a new peace deal and ceasefire agreement was brokered with the help of Russia. Armenia suffered 4,005 casualties, while Azerbaijan lost 2,879 troops. Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, was victorious, obtaining the reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh as an Autonomous Oblast of Azerbaijan, and gaining control over most of the region. The only link between Nagorno-Karabakh and the outer world is represented by the Lachin corridor, the 5-kilometre wide strip connecting Armenia to the de facto capital of NK, Stepanakert.

Main Takeaways

Nagorno-Karabakh is trapped in an eternal conflict brought upon it by Stalinization and the domination of the USSR in the region. The birth of the conflict was a catalyst of inter-ethnic fight and discontent, as well as a battle of identity versus political divide. The Soviet Union often “Russified” the countries that it was composed of, in order to limit uprisings and establish a common identity upon all the nations and ethnic groups in its composition.

With a power vacuum in the Middle East that both Russia and Turkey are eager to fill, the South Caucasus has become an issue of more than national identity and common interests.

Bibliography

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