World War III - The US-Iran Conflict
Back in January last year, most of the world's fears were not related to the newly emerging coronavirus, but to a threat that, at that point in time, seemed much direr - the possibility of World War III. Looking back at it now, the events that have led up to it seem incredibly far away and even the conflict in itself seems to have been forgotten, however, even though it may have been put in the shadow of the other events that have turned this year upside down (and, as we all very well know, there have been about a million things that happened this year), it is still very much an ongoing issue. You surely know the conflict I am talking about (it's even in the title), so, without a further introduction, we shall dive in and analyze the US-Iran conflict.
Background - A brief walk through history
The relations between the US and Iran have always been quite complicated, as Iran represents a critical point of influence over which global superpowers have fought for almost a century. All of the following events have most probably deeply influenced the current state of relations between the two countries, however, that is not to say that there have been no amicable actions between the two countries.
1953 - U.S. intelligence, together with their British counterpart, stage a coup d'etat, meant to overthrow the democratically elected prime minister of Iran, Mohammed Mossadeq, who had tried to lessen the Western countries' influence over Iran. The coup brings back to power the Western-friendly monarchy, headed by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, which however was incredibly unpopular with the population, thus the Shah relying on U.S. support to remain in power.
1954 - The Consortium Agreement of 1954 is signed by the Iranian shah, after pressures coming from both the U.S. and British governments. The agreement gives U.S., British, and French oil companies 40 per cent ownership of the nationalized oil industry for twenty-five years.
1957 - The Cooperation Concerning Civil Uses of Atoms Agreement, part of the Eisenhower's administration "Atoms for Peace" initiative, was signed by the U.S. and Iran, laying the foundation for the latter's nuclear programme, the United States providing Iran with a reactor and weapons-grade enriched uranium fuel.
1960 - Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela establish the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in an effort to balance the global oil market, dominated by Western companies. By 1970s, OPEC profits skyrocket, offering them an edge over Western economies and making Iran an even more crucial ally for the U.S.
1979 - Millions of Iranians take to the streets in protest of the Shah's regime, which they view as corrupt and illegitimate, opposing the pro-Western agenda. On January 16, the Shah is forced to flee the country and eventually travels to the United States. On February 1, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a Shiite clerk who had opposed the Shah's Westernization of Iran, returns to the country after 14 years of exile and becomes the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic, turning Iran from a pro-West monarchy to a vehemently anti-West Islamic theocracy.
1979 - 1981 - The U.S. embassy in Tehran is taken over by a group of radical Iranian college students, who take hostage fifty-two American diplomats and citizens, under the demand that the U.S. extradite the Shah. Washington severs ties with Tehran, sanctioning Iranian oil exports and freezing Iranian assets. Over a year later, under the Algiers Accords, through which the U.S. makes a promise not to intervene in Iranian politics, the hostages are released.
1980 - 1988 - The situation between the U.S. and Iran is only worsened when the former supports Iraq's invasion of Iran through economic aid, training, and dual-use of technology, which will lead up to an eight-year war.
1983 - Two trucks loaded with explosives drive into barracks housing American and French service members of the Multinational Force in Lebanon, then detonate. The attack kills 241 U.S. military personnel—the highest single-day death toll for the U.S. Armed Forces since the Tet Offensive during the Vietnam War. A group named Islamic Jihad, widely believed to be a front for Hezbollah, claims responsibility for the attack. The bombing hastens the withdrawal of U.S. Marines from Lebanon and leads the State Department to designate Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism in 1984.
1985 - In spite of openly supporting Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War, the senior Reagan administration covertly begins looking into ways to improve its relationship with Iran, hoping for the release of seven American hostages held by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Despite an embargo on selling weapons to Iran, a high-profit sale was approved by the government, however, it did not lead to the safe release of the hostages in question.
1988 - After Iran nearly sinks an American frigate in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy launches a retaliatory campaign, called Operation Praying Mantis, two Iranian oil platforms are destroyed and a frigate is sunk. In July, the U.S. Navy shoots down an Iranian passenger jet, after mistaking it for a fighter jet, killing all 290 people on board.
1992 - 1996 - Under the George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations, the U.S. intensifies sanctions against Iran, restricting the use of materials that could be used to develop advanced weaponry (Iran-Iraq Arms Nonproliferation Act - 1992), placing a complete oil and trade embargo (1995), and an embargo on non-American companies investing more than $20 million per year in Iran’s oil and gas sectors (Iran and Libya Sanctions Act - 1996).
1998 - 2000 - Secretary of State Madeleine Albright meets with Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister at the Six-Plus-Two Talks, during the 1998 UN General Assembly. In April 2020, Albright acknowledges the role the U.S. played in overthrowing Mossadeq and calls previous policy actions regarding Iran "regrettably shortsighted", however, there is no explicit apology for the intervention. Some sanctions against Iran are lifted.
2001 - Following the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the George W. Bush administration establishes a back channel with Iran in order to coordinate the defeat of the Taliban, a shared enemy which had provided safe haven to the members of al-Qaeda in Afganistan. In the aftermath of the 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, the United States and Iran collaborate on the Bonn Agreement regarding state-building and the repatriation of Afghan refugees.
2002 - President George W. Bush states that Iran is part of an "axis of evil", together with Iraq and North Korea, elaborating that Iran “aggressively pursues [weapons of mass destruction] and exports terror, while an unelected few repress the Iranian people’s hope for freedom.” In response, Iran ceases secret meetings with U.S. officials, focusing on the capturing of al-Qaeda operatives and combating the Taliban.
2003 - Given the threat of a possibly revived WMD program in Iraq, the U.S. invades the country. Iran backs local Shiite militias in Iraq, some of which participate in attacks on U.S. forces. During the same time period, the U.S. voices concerns that Iran is attempting to develop nuclear weapons and inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency announce they’ve found traces of highly-enriched uranium at a nuclear plant in Iran. Tehran agrees to cease production of enriched uranium and allows stricter inspections of its nuclear sites, however, this will prove to be quite short-lived.
Obama Administration
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued the rise, mostly due to the alleged nuclear weapon's program Iran is said to be developing. However, during the Obama Administration, the relation between the two countries started to take a turn for the better, as negotiations began in order to reach a nuclear deal.
In September 2013, President Barack Obama calls newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, in order to discuss Iran's nuclear programme. Just two months later, the P5+1 and Iran sign an interim nuclear agreement, which cut off Iran's "most likely paths to a bomb" and, in return, provided Iran with some sanction relief. Iran considered the deal to be a "political victory", fact over which critics have argued that such deals with Iran may only be beneficial to one side of the conflict.
Following the interim deal, in July 2015, Iran, the P5+1 and the European Union sign the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), through which, in return for sanction relief, which were causing the country's economy to stagnate, Iran agrees to undertake a series of steps, including dismantling and redesigning its nuclear reactor in Arak, allowing more intrusive verification mechanisms, and limiting uranium enrichment for at least fifteen years. It is considered to be a huge breakout deal for both Iran and the U.S., as they had for long been at odds with one another. However, many Republican and some Democratic lawmakers oppose the deal, arguing that lifting sanctions will bolster the Iranian government and allow it to destabilize the region.
Trump Administration
Even though remarkable progress had been made in bettering the relationship between Iran and the U.S. during the Obama Administration, the following President of the United States, Donald Trump, did not share his predecessor's views on how the situation between the two countries should be handled.
In May 2018, President Trump announces that the United States will withdraw from the JCPOA and mount sanctions on Iran, similar to the previous "maximum pressure" campaigns that had been held against Iran before. In response, Iran begins boosting its uranium enrichment program, in violation of the agreement's terms, this de facto withdrawal coupled with the formal one from the U.S. marking the beginning of rhetorical and military escalation with Iran. Many European leaders and military experts criticized the withdrawal of the U.S. from the agreement, whereas Republican lawmakers and Israel and Saudi Arabia applauded this action.
Tensions rise even more in April 2019, when the U.S. designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) - a branch of the Iranian army - a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), this marking the first time when the U.S. has designated a body of a sovereign government's a terrorist organization. Military action starts being taken as well, when, on June 13, the United States blames Iran for the attack of two oil tankers and four commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump calling the country "a nation of terror". In response, the U.S. announces the deployment of one thousand additional troops to the Middle East and, two days after that statement, the IRGC shoots down a U.S. surveillance drone.
In September 2019, state-controlled Saudi Aramco oil facilities in eastern Saudi Arabia, the country second-largest oil field and a critical crude-oil stabilization centre, face a drone attack, which halts half the country's oil output and causes and unprecedented jump in Brent crude prices. At the kingdom's request, the U.S. deploys military troops in order to bolster Saudi air and missile defence and, whereas the Houthi rebels, an Iran-backed group from Yemen, claim responsibility for the attack, both the United States and Saudi Arabia blame Iran.
At the end of 2019, U.S. forces conduct airstrikes on facilities in Iraq and Syria, which the Pentagon claims are linked to pro-Iranian militias responsible for attacking US service personnel in Iraq. At least 25 people are killed, an Iran-backed militia says. Days later, hundreds of pro-Iranian demonstrators attempt to storm the US embassy in Baghdad, scaling the walls and forcing the gates open, in protest of the US airstrikes and calling for the withdrawal of its troops from Iraq. President Trump states that Iran will pay “a very big price” for any lives lost or damage incurred at U.S. facilities.
And then 2020 happened
On the 3rd of January 2020, all hell broke loose - the United States conducted a drone strike near the Baghdad International Airport, killing Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC’s elite Quds Force, considered by many to be the second most powerful person in Iran, after the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. To make matters worse, alongside him, Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis is also killed, along with seven other Iranian and Iraqi nationals. Iran announces it will take its revenge and, as the first means of action, no longer commits to the restriction placed under the JCPOA. Not long after, Iran mistakenly shoots down a Ukrainian passenger plane, having mistaken for a U.S. military jet, and later attacks multiple U.S. bases in Iraq, wounding many U.S. and Iraqi personnel.
Conclusion
Tensions had reached an all-time high between the two countries and many at the time speculated that a full out war may emerge in the Middle East, with the potential of even escalating into the Third World War. However, just concerns were wildly influenced by the panic and uncertainty the situation posed and, if we are to look back at it, it would have been an isolated conflict at most, which would have though resulted in many more deaths. Even though it may be hard to say, it may be thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic that the conflict did not escalate any further, however, that is not to say that it may not pick up from the beginning once this crisis is averted. What is certain though is that, given the degree of tension in the Middle East, not only between the U.S. and Iran, but also in almost in every other country in the region, we are not in for a bright future in the matter and our only hope is for civil negotiations, where all parties involved are willing to compromise for the betterment of their relations.
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